The reinvention of aviation: the effects of Covid-19 on the aviation industry, and actions needed to ensure its future success.

Project Overview



This research project sought to develop short-term and long-term projections on the outlook of air transportation and to produce relevant recommendations for the direction of NASA aviation research as it adapts to the disrupted industry. We developed a model to estimate airline recovery trajectories, and researched the unique effects of the pandemic on various sectors of aviation. We found that the pandemic highlighted past flaws in the aviation system, creating widespread effects across the industry. As the industry looks towards recovery, we believe that it cannot simply return to 2019 operations, but instead perform a full reinvention to support long-term demand and prepare for future catastrophes. We recommend that NASA seize this opportunity to expedite innovation through an increased focus on passenger satisfaction, meaningful steps towards sustainability, and significant collaboration with a diverse range of groups.

Dashboard



Our Dashboard displays a variety of data to assess the current state of US air travel and the direction it is headed in. Both the Live Data panel and the Projections panel provides 3 categories of information: Covid-19 related statistics, data on economic conditions, and air travel related metrics. We provide data on Covid-19 and the economy because both are very influential factors that heavily impact the state of air travel.

Live Data

Covid-19 Cases & Deaths

Source:  Covid19 API (updated daily)

Unemployment Claims

Source:  FRED (updated weekly)

TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Source:  TSA Passenger Throughput (updated on weekdays)

Projections

Covid-19 Deaths (7 day moving average)

Unemployment Rate

Source:  The Financial Forecast Center (updated monthly)

Domestic Air Travel Demand

Historical RPMs Source:  BTS Transtats (updated monthly with a 3 month lag; 2-3 most recent months are estimated by our model)
Estimated, Projected, and Counterfactual RPMs Source:  Team Revelation Model (estimates & projections updated daily)